Most likely negatively for the current president. Regardless of actual policies, there will be lots of people associating the beginning of the recession with whoever has the role at the time. Few consider what the baseline of inaction would be.
It’s not going to help that Biden was previously taking credit for it with the imo poorly considered “Bidenomics” official catchphrase. Spending a ton on Build Back Better than no one can point to the building or the better. And pushing these in an abstract while people are very clearly seeing grocery store prices.
Right or wrong doesn’t matter. This admin and the media has been doing their best to gaslight a great economy, and that I think will hurt. You can be so blue that your commie red, and still see the messaging of this admin has been bad.
But then again, the last incumbent oversaw a 15% unemployment rate and almost won reelection when 3,000 people were dying every day so, perhaps it wouldn't be.