[ddp26]

For those who only read the headline, LLMs can in fact do advanced probabilistic reasoning, when given the right tooling. This article is talking about their ability to act as a RNG.

One interesting thing I've found in building an AI forecaster is that you can use the logprobs from the token representing probability, so when the model concludes some long chain of thought with "20%", you can check the logprob of that token vs "25%" or "15%" to get confidence levels.