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by toomuchtodo
780 days ago
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https://www.economist.com/china/2024/03/21/chinas-low-fertil... | https://archive.today/0iRUa "Consider another figure that should haunt leaders: 1.7. That is the number of children that, on average, Chinese women of child-bearing age call ideal. China’s ideal is one of the world’s lowest, far below the number given in Japan or South Korea. Chinese women born after 1995 want the fewest of all: 48.3% of them told the Chinese General Social Survey of 2021 that they desire one or no children. There is growing evidence that such attitudes are powerfully shaped by how people, and those around them, experienced the one-child policy." https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/324... | https://archive.today/EXI8u Seems fairly straightforward to predict based on a total fertility rate of 1-1.05 (2022-current) and forwarding looking social/cultural cues. TFR won't get to 0, but based on all available evidence across the world, it isn't going back up either. |
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It is going back up, it's just very unclear on which timescale. Will it go back to the replacement rate in 20, 50, 100, 1000 years?
Cultures/genes which favor procreation will ... procreate, and become more and more represented. It's possible that in a 1000 years, most of the world will be from orthodox jews / amish / conservative muslims etc. at which point the TFR will be back up.
And this is when we leave it to the nature. China as an autoritarian state has a lot of tools at their disposal. They can make motherhood more desirable.