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by sigmoid10 784 days ago
>GPT4 gives the expected value and this is simply wrong.

Only at T=0. See my edit above how this changes everything.

1 comments

This doesn't really have anything to do with the language model. The temperature only has to do with the _sampling_ from the probability distribution which the language model predicts. In fact, raising the temperature would eventually cause the model to randomly print "left" or "right," (eventually at 50/50 chance) not converge on the actual distribution which the prompt suggests. I suppose if you restricted the logits to just those tokens "left" and "right", softmaxed them, and then tuned the temperature T you might get it to reproduce the correct distribution, but that would be true of a random language model as well.

I think its pretty simple and straightforward: the model simply fails to understand the question and can reasonably be said to not understand probability.

That's just not true. At least not more or less than when performing the same experiment on humans.
This matches my understanding, thanks. I thought I was going crazy reading other comments.