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by drlemonpepper 782 days ago
Is Starlink going to suffer the same fate as Tesla and X? Willy-nilly org thrashing and "removing 10% of features"?

Is there a better alternative to "the one to beat" spending unsustainably, only to fail once all competitors are too far behind to stay viable?

2 comments

You could say it’s the living results of that fate already.

Here’s an HN discussion about firing the leads of Starlink[1] early in development (2018). And another in the following year laying off 10% of the workforce[2] (2019).

1. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18349991

2. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18888641

> same fate as Tesla

You mean it’s obliterating traditional western competitors but facing stiff competition from China?

Define "obliterating"?

While the Model Y is doing great (global top seller, #5 in U.S. for 2023) it's just one model. If you look at the U.S. total auto sales in 2023, Tesla accounted for 7% of the Top 25 best selling models, while the five brands that did better accounted for a combined 67% (and those brands include Ford, Chevrolet and Ram.)

Tesla's bet is that just a few models with minimal changes over time (outside of software) will be enough to "obliterate" the existing car sales model of making a wide enough variety of vehicle models for everyone's tastes, and keeping those models fresh and new to keep sales going. Time will tell, but it would be surprising for the Western companies to be obliterated, when their top sellers are still pickup trucks (750K F-series sold in 2023), and there's no competition from Tesla (unless you count the 4000 Cybertrucks.)