[015a]

I shouldn't have used the word asymptote; I should have said logarithmic. I don't doubt a best-case situation where we get a GPT-5, GPT-6, GPT-7, etc; each is more capable than the last; just that there will be more months between each, it'll be more expensive to train each, and the gain of function between each will be smaller than the previous.

Let me phrase this another way: Llama 3 400B releases and it has GPT-5 level performance. Obviously; we have not seen GPT-5; so we don't have a sense of what that level of performance looks like. It might be that OpenAI simply has a one year lead, but it might also be that all these frontier model developers are stuck in the same capability swamp; and we simply don't have the compute, virgin tokens, economic incentives, algorithms, etc to push through it (yet). So, Meta pulls ahead, but we're talking about feet, not miles.