| Mindblowingly poor argumentation. a) No disentanglement of growth factors. Economic growth tied to expansion of consumer base is slowing for demographic reasons and more crucially, key markets in the knowledge economy are demand saturated - attention economy for example is not growing - it peaked in the pandemic and outside of policy intervention, there’s very limited growth potential. b) Failure to spell out the transformer as machine that prints machines. The transformer extracts the rules of creation from the corpus of human created labor results and automatically produces the replication function. The technology may be in its infancy, but it will only improve. c) Historically adjustment for new job creation has operated on a multi decade timescale, complimentary to the often massive infrastructure needs (wires, power plants, distribution infrastructure) but this technology does not have those requirements. The app stores, fiber lines, machines, API platforms all exist. Adopting products can happen in months. The loop from science to product is months (see vision transformer) d) Do I spot trickle down economics? Are we gonna invoke this boomer level of delusional narrative for the next 20
years again despite the iron clad metrics showing it’s wishful thinking to appeal to certain ideological positions rather than grounded in any kind of reality. The gains from operational efficiency will become stock buybacks, yachts, macadamia
chewing cows and vanity dildos flying to space. Appealing to history is all fine and dandy, but one has to spell out the divergent core conditions to have a serious conversation - this article feels like faith, not well reasoned forecasting or even science fiction |
A. Some parts of the economy will grow. Some will shrink. My claim is that if you believe that AI will create new efficiencies and continue to do so, then overall economic growth will increase at a faster rate than ever.
B. Predicting what architecture could lead to this growth is beyond the scope of this article. The point was to say that if we keep getting increased efficiencies we'll get increased growth.
C. Job creation accelerates. Before I was hired at OpenAI in 2020, nobody on the planet had ever been hired as a prompt engineer. Now it's a career (at least for the time being.)
D. I'm assuming maximizing profit in the most near-sighted way possible. Same as it has ever been.
Is there a specific claim or argument that you disagree with?