[liber8]

...and home prices will continue to go up for another 30 years (and the 30 years after that). Of course there will be recessions (and likely even depressions) during those times. What's your point?

I think you're missing something here. Nobody is talking about picking actively managed mutual funds (which you're right, are a total gamble/ripoff). The Vanguard fund mentioned above is an index fund. It's not at all crazy to assume that by picking the world's biggest index fund, you are going to get 5% over inflation over 30 years.

[Drbble]

There is a reasonable line of thinking that the Internet and modern computer modeling and retail investing have had the effect of pricing in the future growth in equities, and so traditional growth will not continue.

[liber8]

Huh?

Pricing in the future growth in equities =!= no more growth...