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by madspindel 785 days ago
To be honest, it's not super clear what you are asking (as a non-english person). Do you mean you know which one is the great prize? I modified your prompt (added great before the word prize) and got this answer:

In the scenario you describe, you already know which door has the great prize and you have chosen that door initially. The game show host then eliminates one of the other two doors, which must be a door with a bad prize. At this point, you are asked whether you want to switch to the remaining unchosen door.

Since you initially chose the door with the great prize and the host's action of removing a bad prize door doesn't change the contents of the doors, there is no benefit to switching. Your initial choice was the door with the great prize, and it still contains the great prize. Switching doors would only lead you to a door with a bad prize.

Therefore, you should not switch doors. You should stick with your original choice where you already know the great prize is located.

This situation is different from the classic Monty Hall problem, where the contestant does not know where the prize is initially and the probabilities change based on the host's action of removing a bad prize door. In your case, since you know where the prize is from the start, the logic of the Monty Hall problem does not apply. Stick with your initial choice.

1 comments

Nice catch! I didn't even realize that myself. I get more or less the same result as you now.