[hackerlight]

> 'We are only going to make $5billion instead of $15 billion, let's not bother with that one.'

Well, yes. If there's a 10% chance of success, these differences matter. Decision making happens at the margin.

[Eisenstein]

How would they know how much one drug would make vs the other while in the research phase?

[hackerlight]

Private capital doesn't get allocated based on omniscience of future outcomes. It's about approximations of risk to reward in an environment of uncertainty. If you add risk or reduce reward of biotech, you get less private capital in biotech. Investors will allocate in other sectors with better risk to reward.