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My prediction after observing the last 3 years - remote work will go away for the average worker in the US (or other high cost areas) with mediocre talents, and for the average junior engineers. Reasons are as follows. First of all, people have genuinely different preferences when it comes to remote - some thrive in that environment, some need other people around. Same with companies too. Some companies will thrive in a fully remote setup because of remote-friendly cultures, and some won't who will be doing RTO. So I see a high chance of sortition between fully remote and hybrid/RTO companies. Second, the hybrid/RTO companies will necessarily be present in tech hubs (like SV). For fully remote ones, there are again a few types. There are ones who see workers as mere replaceable cogs, and they will hire in the cheapest possible areas (India, Easter Europe, West Africa etc). For cogs-seekers, if timezone is a constraint, they might go to LATAM. Then there are other remote-first companies which will look for "culture fit" and language skills - they will first hire in Canada or UK/Ireland, depending on their timezone needs. A Canadian worker in Toronto is much cheaper than an American one in Nowhere, US[1] Finally, if one is a superstar, then they will be in demand no matter where they are or what working style they prefer. Companies will always bend over backwards to accommodate their preferences. [1] Across my entire company, 75% of the new eng headcount in the last year is in Canada or Ireland. We laid off multiple US eng as well. Canadian pay rate is much lower than even the lowest tier US rates. |