[wumeow]

> The annexation of Crimea didn't happen until the situation predicted by Burns played out exactly as expected.

Except Ukraine wasn't seeking NATO membership, they were going to sign the EU cooperation agreement until Russia bullied and threatened them into backing out. Again, Russia is ultimately the one encouraging NATO expansion.

> And the catalyst there was us backing a coup that overthrew a [democratically elected] Russian leaning President, sending the largely ethnic Russian regions (including Crimea and Donbas) into outright rebellion, starting the exact civil war Burns had predicted.

The US didn't want Yanukovych ousted. The Nuland tape shows that the US was trying to set up meetings between him and oppo leaders after he opened up spots in his interim government (because both sides wanted a neutral mediator and the EU was dragging it's feet, hence the famous comment). He chose to flee, though, and was voted out by parliament.

[somenameforme]

Reuters had an uncharacteristically informative article [1] on why Ukraine backed away from the EU. Joining the European Union, and joining the Eurasian Customs Union [2] are mutually exclusive. Essentially Yanukovych wanted to join the EU, but wasn't getting what he was after. He was looking for $160 billion to make up for what he argued Ukraine would have gained from joining the Eurasian Customs Union - the EU offered him $0.8 billion. Like always it most likely just comes down to corruption - seeing where he could butter his belly the most.

It wasn't the EU that was desperate for Ukraine to join, it was the US. We wanted to use them as a strategic tool against Russia, whereas them actually joining the EU would cause nothing but problems for the EU because it'd result in a mass flooding of labor, cheap grain, and so on. Flooding the EU with cheap grain sounds awesome, but it would imperil farmers and agriculture, in general, in other countries. It's an issue that persists to this day with numerous countries banning the import of Ukrainian grain - something that could not be done if Ukraine was in the EU. The only relevant reference from Nuland regarding Yanukovych was a desire to "see if he wants to talk before or after." [3]

[1] - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-russia-deal-speci...

[2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Customs_Union_of_the_Eurasian_...

[3] - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957

[mopsi]

> It wasn't the EU that was desperate for Ukraine to join, it was the US. We wanted to use them as a strategic tool against Russia, whereas them actually joining the EU would cause nothing but problems for the EU because it'd result in a mass flooding of labor, cheap grain, and so on.

The US has no interest in bolstering one of their main economic competitors with millions of skilled workers, don't be silly. European industries drool at the prospect of getting access to a skilled metal worker for a few hundred euros per month.

In this paragraph, you unintentionally reveal why Ukraine saw mass protests when Yanukovych sabotaged closer relations with the EU after last-minute Russian pressure. Ukraine is one of the poorest countries in Europe, but opening up to the EU for movement of goods and labor would've meant sharp and massive rise in the living standard of Ukrainians - as has happened everywhere else in Eastern Europe.

Poland is roughly the same size as Ukraine in terms of population. Poland requested EU membership in 1994 and started implementing reforms required for membership soon thereafter. It joined the EU as a full member in 2004. Here's what the process did to the GDP: https://i.imgur.com/008Ynan.png

Ukraine was on the verge of similar explosion of economic development. Imagine your wage rising five to ten times in mere ten years.

And naturally, that massive rise in living standard would've alienated Ukraine from Russia and greatly reduced Russian influence on Ukraine because they have nothing comparable to offer. In the worst case scenario for Russia, seeing the prosperity in Ukraine could've mobilized their population to demand change and topple Putin.

Plain human greed and desire for "more stuff" was one of the key drivers behind USSR's collapse too. When Gorbachev loosened censorship in the late 1980s, people learned how Europeans and Americans lived, and wanted the same things for themselves and their children: nice clothes, Sony stereos and German washing machines. A very simple, natural instinct.

[wumeow]

> He was looking for $160 billion to make up for what he argued Ukraine would have gained from joining the Eurasian Customs Union

That's disingenuous. He was looking to offset the damage caused by Russia's trade restrictions done in retaliation for considering or signing the agreement. The Reuters article mentions this:

> Next year Ukraine will have to cover foreign debt payments of $8 billion, according to its finance ministry. It was teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, partly because Moscow was blocking sales of Ukrainian-produced meat, cheese and some confectionery, and scrapping duty-free quotas on steel pipes. Some officials said the restrictions showed what life would be like if Ukraine signed the EU agreement.

Also, three months before the summit in which it was supposed to be signed, Russia essentially stopped all imports from Ukraine[0] but resumed them after the agreement failed[1]

[0] https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/164137.html

[1] https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/182691.html

[somenameforme]

Thanks for the links - those are interesting and great resources that I hadn't seen before. But I am not arguing that Russia was not trying to apply pressure to Ukraine, but rather that it had basically nothing to do with their decision. Yanukovych wanted to go with the EU because he thought he could get tens of billions of dollars doing so. When a country sends tens of billions of dollars to another extremely corrupt country, that's going to make the political leaders of that country (as well as their associated friends/businesses) extremely rich. But it turns out the EU was not at all interested in such a thing, nor was the IMF - whom he also approached. Russia, to a lesser degree, was.

I think the timelines also support this. As per your link, the customs arrangement between Ukraine and Russia was terminated on August 14th. As per the Reuters link, Yanukovych was actively hostile to joining the Eurasian Customs Union a month later, and only sided with Russia about 4 months later. He only seems to have only finally changed his mind once it became clear that not only was he not going to get rich(er) off the EU or the IMF, but he also got Russia to offer him $15 billion as well as sharply lowering the prices paid by Naftogaz - a Ukrainian state run gas company that was headed by a Yanukovych appointee - Yevhen Bakulin, who has a fun rabbit hole to go down, in his own right.