[recursive]

This is a reasonable point of view I guess. But there's not really a reliable way for the consumer to get the real probability. If it happened to me, it's likely enough to consider. Maybe there's a hidden variable about my usage pattern that makes it more likely. Since it's totally opaque, there's no way to know.

[1123581321]

Sure, if actually happens to someone, they're rightfully not risking it again. If for no other reason, it'd be likely that a fresh account would be detected and associated with the old one. Plus, whatever unusual situation of yours triggered the ban, such as border crossing or how you route your Internet traffic, would probably still apply. (I'm not saying someone is doing the wrong thing if those things are the case for them.)