[drewcon]

Only if a significant amount of people are being directly infected by the cows and a mutation occurs in a person to allow spread to other humans. So seems like the chance is low, but not zero.

The real worry is pigs.

If it makes its way to pigs, we are in trouble. From what I understand, pigs contain a mix of avian and human receptors that make them the ideal mixing ground for crossover. Cows do not.

[noduerme]

The question is what is the probability it doesn't transfer to pigs (if it hasn't already), compounded on a daily basis and given an exponentially increasing viral load in farm environments?

Scratch that. The question is how many days or weeks until it does make that leap.

Then the two next questions are what's the likelihood of any given pig serving as an incubator for a recombinant virus that attaches to human lung epithelial cells, and how deadly is that virus. Run that experiment every day for six months at a few farms and you might get lucky. Run it everywhere in the country and we're S.O.L.

[NewJazz]

It has already transferred to humans from dairy cows.

https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20240408/cdc-issues-...

[drewcon]

Yes, but that's just an opportunistic infection of cow flavored H5N1. It's not a new strain that will transmit human to human.

With pigs...the risk is a mutation occurs within a pig that then transmits to humans that allows humans can transmit to other humans.