[mhardcastle]

For what it's worth, "play money" betting site Manifold is currently at a 69% chance of sale versus 31% of shutting down.

https://manifold.markets/mint/conditional-on-the-tiktok-ban-...

[dnissley]

There's another market with more options where "ban will be rendered unenforceable by courts" is leading: https://manifold.markets/MichaelBlume/tiktok-endgame-which-w...

[ok123456]

What about no sale yet they continue to operate because the ban is not enforceable either legally or technically?

[schoen]

For example, if they (or some party that's directly targeted like Apple or Cloudflare) gets a U.S. court to enjoin enforcement of some of the provisions.

[intrasight]

Plug pulling is easy technically. I think plug pulling legally is also easy. Bytedance just doesn't have a strong defense.

[ok123456]

The defense is the bill of rights.

[arduanika]

Buzzkill! Everybody else on here was having fun opining that it's 100% certain that China pulls the plug, or conversely that a sale will happen, and you just had to point out that it's an empirical question where nobody can read the CCP's mind. Boo.