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by xyst 782 days ago
I don’t see VR becoming mainstream. At least today anyways. It’s very niche. Hardware is clunky. The software is locked to Apple or Meta APIs. It’s difficult to explore when the manufacturers put up so many walls within their walled up ecosystems.
3 comments

Today's VR is good, but not $100B market good. The SV managerial class has read too much into all the NYT bestsellers about "disruptive innovation" and now every goddamn product category must be "disruptive". Nothing can "just exist" anymore...
That's why the actual end goal for everyone working in this space is Mixed Reality (AR/MR/XR) in a glasses form factor that replaces your phone. It's obvious that's what Apple is targetting, and Meta have also demo'd similar tech they're working on at the Quest events they've held the last couple of years.
Within a decade, full VR will be available in a standard pair of glasses.

Eventually we’ll probably move to a single OS that runs everything, your phone , computer , vr, will all be a single device( or course us old folks will probably still prefer monitor so).

Just like fusion is juuuuust 20 years away... for the last 30 years.

Not saying they're the same level of difficulty/tech, necessarily, but there's a reason we have the term Hype Cycle. We had one for VR about 25-30 years ago. Recently, we've had Second Hype Cycle... maybe next it'll be for realsies or it'll be Third Hype Cycle for VR?

Apologies for the jadedness, but... you see enough of the meta at some point :)

EDIT: What's the actual killer app for VR for the general population ? We're already over-saturated with a plethora of entertainment.

Imagine being able to put on glasses, and instantly have your computer. Your hands are tracked so you can type without a keyboard.

This replaces the computer for most people. With Windows on ARM you could probably build something like this today, but it's still too billy.

If I had a billion dollars I'd be working on a single device that replaces everything. Your phone, your TV( or at least sync to it so content is seamless). Then I'd sell it below cost with a subscription of some sort.

With an open source model at a reasonable markup.

That's the endgame for Meta. You'll never leave their new ecosystem.

> Imagine being able to put on glasses, and instantly have your computer. Your hands are tracked so you can type without a keyboard.

How, exactly, would that work? You'd stare intently at the virtual keyboard? Or just think about "thing" and it'd magically appear? Voice recognition is actually pretty decent as a non-magical thing that sort-of-works-well-enough.

> If I had a billion dollars I'd be working on a single device that replaces everything. Your phone, your TV( or at least sync to it so content is seamless). Then I'd sell it below cost with a subscription of some sort. With an open source model at a reasonable markup.

I love the gusto! I hope that -- once you have a billion dollars -- you'll stick to your principles. I think getting to a billion dollars is -- in itself -- a selection effect/bias, so...

> That's the endgame for Meta. You'll never leave their new ecosystem.

If they're good enough... even their employees won't want to.

It's money IRL that Meta wants. That's the end game.

EDIT: Just to add: Absent truly Matrix-level VR, people will still be able to tell and unless you're a FULLY committed to solipsism or almost-as-absurd levels of apathy... well, it's going to cause tensions :)

We already have laser keyboards, the visible laser is only for convenience.

If you don't like that you can always use a Bluetooth keyboard instead.

This already exists.

https://shop.simulavr.com/

Assuming it ships that's already half way there. Another way to accomplish what I'm thinking of would be to basically cloud sync your user sessions between your phone, computer and headset.

> Assuming it ships that's already half way there.

Famouser last-words have never been spoken. You must be from the venture capital spheres, I take it?

I'm very skeptical about that. We don't even have the technology for such display can be implemented on transparent glass. Also we don't have that good battery tech which can drive such gear and smaller enough to be hidden in a glasses.

Even if we have all of those tech today, it will take long time to make it a mass production. IMH it will take at least decades to get that level.

You could wirelessly transmit from your phone, but this is a decade from now. No one knows how far tech will advance.

Rokid connected to a device in your pocket is already pretty close to the same experience.

But we still don't have such a display tech or do we? I've never heard something like that. Probably someone can invent such tech within a decade. But seeing it in a consumer product takes time. So it's safe to assume that it won't happened within a decade if we don't even have such tech today. Especially in this context of investment.
https://global.rokid.com/products/rokid-max

We have the display now. It's not too far of a leap to see a full built in computer. As is, I can just plug it into my phone and that's pretty close.

That's not a VR glass. It's AR. They are completely different. For full VR, the display must be completely opaque. The side must be sealed to block environment. It's impossible to make it with a normal glasses shape with current tech and I don't think we can make it in a near future.