[jpgvm]

> I am guessing the only reason Tesla shares would be up since they would take a cut from the earnings?

Tesla shares are actually up because the earnings call seemed to deprioritize the pie in the sky robotaxi plan in favor of shipping a cheaper car ala Model 2, much to the relief of every investor listening to the call.

If Tesla doesn't release a cheaper model they have no hope of competing in China, especially as BYD is completely relentless with both their pricing and their internal efficiencies (they are selling EVs for 10k USD and turning a ~20% profit according to last BYD earnings).

Technology wise Tesla still has a lead on non-battery components, especially in terms of simplified wiring harness/better vertical integration of electronic components and software but none of those are important if they can't translate into operational efficiency. My theory is they actually do translate very well but other fuckups Tesla has made means that on net they are still losing ground.

China is the world's biggest EV market by far, not just in terms of volume but also by $ amount. Tesla's very strong valuation for the last several years was based on their strong market position there (and the growth it implied) which has now quickly eroded (and their future revenue potential with it).

Unless their market share numbers get back on track in China expect the stock to continue to decline.

[bryanlarsen]

China is less than 10% of the worldwide vehicle market (5M / 60M). The big difference there is that they are second only to Norway in the fraction of their vehicles that are electric (60%). Which means that about half of all electric cars are currently sold in China. There's little room for growth in China -- overall demand is flat, and EV share will probably top out at 90% or so.

It'll hurt if Tesla can't keep selling ~600,000 cars they sell in China in a year, but they almost certainly can't grow that number.

EV growth for all brands will come from increasing the share outside of China.