[paulgerhardt]

My threat model is probably not yours and my threat model in China is not my thread model in the US is not my threat model in South Africa. But if I had to pick one point, I'd say most people I've met who haven't worked in China over-index on political risk and under-index on driving risk.

For some data, in 2019 about 3 million Americans went to China and the number detained for political reasons (and not working for the US government or journalism) was probably in the single digits?

In the US I've driven about 600,000 miles and been in one traffic accident. In China I've ridden about 30,000 miles and been in 6 traffic accidents.

Plenty of other things people have gone on at length about things that are just different risks in both places.

[mianos]

Funny you should mention traffic accidents. When was working in Shanghai years ago I was in two accidents in a taxi in a week. One would have written the car off, smashed half the engine out. I was close to work so just walked the rest of the way.

[TaylorAlexander]

Yeah that makes sense, thanks I appreciate it. Yeah I guess my concerns were that some internal political tensions would boil over and I’d get caught up in the middle, or that something would happen with Taiwan and I’d get stuck. But the internal tensions seem to have subsided since the zero covid policy was relaxed, and the Taiwan stuff seems very long term. As you say, millions visit without a problem, and there are other things to worry about.

I figured I was over indexing but it’s nice to hear it directly from someone who knows. Thanks!

[conductr]

It’s always a potential that this happens. Millions of people come and go peacefully because it’s not actively happening. You can’t measure the risk by observing present data. But you have to make a decision as to what you risk tolerance is and how likely you think something like this is in the future.