[zackzackzack]

"Anonymous Hedge Fund Manager: No doubt. But this should have been a blockbuster. This should have traded to $60 or $70. This should have launched a wave of tech IPOs."

I think Facebook just deflated the tech IPO bubble for a year or so. No average Joe is going to invest, because, "Well fuck, if Facebook didn't explode, why would any other new tech company? No thanks." The bubble is still there, but it isn't looking like it will be rapidly expanding like people expected it to after the fb IPO.

[waterlesscloud]

I think it's longer than a year. It'll take something really huge to overcome "Well, if Facebook couldn't break out, who can?"

That will ripple back through all investment phases since the ipo is the dream payoff day for many investment rounds.

[malandrew]

I think it's the kind of attenuation that the market needs right now because it basically discourages investors that buy in based on hype instead of intrinsic value.

[tibbon]

I agree with you. For all the startups that wanted to be the "Facebook of X"... if Facebook couldn't do it, why could they?

[malandrew]

Mos' def. They now have a reason to start looking at a revenue sources that aren't based on ads.

Every time I hear about a startup trying to shoe in an ad-based business model where you could make money selling directly or via high value intent-based referral fees to complementary businesses I cringe a bit. A lot of the time ads as a revenue stream are a total cop out that demonstrate a total lack of business sense an ability to spot value.

Google is successful in ads because they are a generalist intent capture platform. Unless your business also happens to capture generalist intent, you should be thinking about referral revenue based on focused intents.

[tibbon]

I just thought we learned years ago that the ago model really wasn't a good one.

[dasil003]

Facebook of B2B durable goods might be a good one to get it on.

[greendestiny]

Is there really any meaning left in the term bubble if a bubble can deflate?

[malandrew]

Yeah. Air keeps getting pumped in. It's unlikely that the Facebook IPO not blowing up on the first day will be enough to let out all the air of the bubble or at least let it out faster than it is getting put in. The truth is that the market for all other types of equity and debt based securities is pretty shit right now and that tech startups are relatively attractive psychologically to investors because they provide hope and the dream of a better future. Most other investment types involve a lot more cold and calculating decisions and don't benefit from irrational investment behaviors.

[greendestiny]

I understand, but it seems to me that bubble used to mean something more than just overvaluation. Specifically unsustained self fulfilling growth followed by a pop.

[pyre]

In terms of inflating/deflating, then calling it a balloon might be more apt. Generally bubbles don't even inflate they just exist or pop.

[brazzy]

Sounds like you've never seen a soap bubble circus act...