[devit]

It seems the problem in the ULA analysis is that it assumes that the cost of the reusable parts, saved by reuse, is only 30% of the total launch cost.

But Falcon 9 seems to cost $40-60 million and carries 200 tons of RP-1 which seems to cost $200-500k, and all other costs should either be small or removable by automation, so the reusable part is actually up to 98-99%, not 30%.

Of course if you just flush boatloads of money down the drain for each launch for no reason, reusing the booster doesn't change much.

Also in general that sort of mathematical modelling is usually worse than useless since the output is usually a straightforward function of the assumptions and the model just makes bullshit assumptions seem more legitimate.

[ceejayoz]

> the reusable part is actually up to 98-99%

Reminder: they still throw away the second stage, but they do retrieve some of the fairings. It's high, but not that high.

[mkaic]

Exactly—getting it that high is one of the primary objectives of the Starship initiative.