[refulgentis]

It's a really funny story that I comment about at least once a week because it drives me nuts.

1. After ChatGPT release, Twitter spam from influencers about chatGPT is one billion and GPT-4 is 1 trillion.

2. Semianalysis publishes a blog post claiming 1.8T sourced from insiders.

3. The way info diffusion works these days, everyone heard from someone else other than Semianalysis.

4. Up until about a month ago, you could confidently say "hey its just that one blog post" and work through it with people to trace their initial hearing of it back to the post.

5. nVidia press conference some time in the last month used the rumors as an example with "apparently" attached, and now people will tell you NVidia confirmed 1.8 trillion.

my $0.02: I'd bet my life GPT-4 isn't 1.8T, and I very much doubt its over 1 trillion. Like, lightning striking the same person 3 times in the same week.

[cjbprime]

You're ignoring geohot, who is a credible source (is an active researcher himself, is very well-connected) and gave more details (MoE with 8 experts, when no-one else was doing production MoE yet) than the Twitter spam.

[anoncareer0212]

Geohot? I know enough people at OpenAI to know 4 people's reaction at the time he started claiming 1T based on timing latency in the ChatGPT webui per token.

In general, not someone you wanna be citing with lengthy platitudes, he's an influencer who speaks engineer, he's burned out of every community he's been in, acrimonously.