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by mangosteenjuice 799 days ago
I think people are over-extending themselves.

This article mentions a single-earner household with $160k income purchasing a $900k+ home.

Assuming this is with 20% or less down at current interest rates, this is bonkers. The term "house poor" is cliche, but I think it describes the position most California buyers are putting themselves in.

For comparison, our household income with RSU deltas is projected to be 500k this year. Half of that gets taxed away. I do not expect to make this much money forever. I'd be satisfied if we made this much for the next sixteen months, then took 50% paycuts.

We bought our home earlier this year, and we set our max price point based on what we could theoretically pool together from all of our liquid holdings and retirement, in a catastrophic situation where we both couldn't find work.

There's an obvious flaw here -- if things got really bad, liquid assets would be devalued, to the point where we may not be able to cover. We got around this by cutting our budget in half, and using what would have been a 40% downpayment for a 1.5 million dollar house to put 75% down on a $800,000 house. We now have a house that cannot be reasonably commuted from on a daily basis unless we leave at 4 in the morning, but we also won't be screwed if we lose our jobs.

I kind of regret buying. Our house immediately appraised for $30k over sale price, and is nearly $80k over a few months after closing. That would get eaten up by taxed and fees if we sold. I expect housing prices to crash after people run out of money sources to tap.

I have no way to prove this, but my impression is that most people with mortgages are buying more house than they can responsibly afford, and they are effectively gambling on not losing their incomes.

3 comments

I think you are 100% spot on. The socal buyer right now is a mix of SF/norcal deep pocketed tech employees(see my other post on this article) and just folks that are extremely desperate to buy a house, ie. they are cashing out everything they have(pension/401k/stocks/other assets) and getting themselves into a very risky position. If the stock market or housing market were to tank you would end up in a situation where all your assets(remember that you cashed out everything) are tied into the house and it crashes in value and you could also lose your job so you lose everything(a very scary situation).
> We got around this by cutting our budget in half, and using what would have been a 40% downpayment for a 1.5 million dollar house to put 75% down on a $800,000 house.

Wow, that's wonderfully financially responsible. I'm glad you were able to do it, but I'm doubtful many people would be able to pull this off.

> I have no way to prove this, but my impression is that most people with mortgages are buying more house than they can responsibly afford, and they are effectively gambling on not losing their incomes.

I think they are definitely doing this, but I also think most people think assuming constant future income instead of a bug jump counts as being financially responsible.

What I fear is that many people instead are betting that they can make the payments for a couple years by hook or crook (undeclared personal loans and credit card advances) until interest rates fall and then they can refinance. If this projected drop in interest rates occurs, they come out way ahead. Real estate prices soar, and they can afford to stay. If it doesn't, house prices will drop, refinancing will be impossible, and there will be an awful lot of foreclosures of underwater mortgages in a couple years.

>I think people are over-extending themselves.

I mean, yes and no. It is true that people are overextending themselves, but there are not a lot of alternatives. To whit: the median home price to median household income ratio is the highest its been since the census started keeping track in 1947 [0]. Its worse than 2008, and like the article says, there are a lot of guardrails in place to prevent the wildly irresponsible borrowing that created that mess.

0. https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-inco...

I think a potentially illuminating visualization would be to calculate what home sale percentile corresponds to a responsible use of the median household income (and vice versa) over the last 70 years, but that sounds like a really finicky calculation, so maybe not today.