[waterproof]

That seems like a very weak “law”. Is it meant as a joke? The supporting evidence is just numbers pulled apparently from nowhere (“let’s assume…”) and the conclusion is wildly off base. They seem to imply that if optimization improves the performance of much of the world’s software, by 4% each year, then it’s a waste of time.

Murphy’s law is the only comparison given. I wonder what the comparative expense is to develop faster and faster hardware, vs. to keep improving compilers. Depending on how the ROIs compare, (in dollars-per-percent gain, let’s say) maybe this “law” is worth some weight.

OTOH, the Postgres article in question seems to show diminishing returns from optimization, which belies the whole premise of the “law” which assumes the gain is consistent from year to year. And might prove Prorbstig’s implied point about optimization being a bad investment over the long term!