[incomingpain]

Ireland is in a very bad spot right now. They are in a deep recession, over a year of gdp contraction. Later this month we find out last quarter's gdp reduction and if it's -0.6% or worse, Ireland moves from recession to depression. Which I will be shocked to see if they achieve anything better.

Ireland's housing crisis: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/15/world/europe/ireland-hous...

Overall Ireland is in a bad spot and young folks with low work experience are the ones who will hurt the most.

[paulette449]

Shrinking GDP, yes, likely to move from technical to actual recession, sure, but "in a deep recession" is factually incorrect [1]:

"Ireland officially fell into recession last year as multinational exports slumped in the face of weaker global demand but the domestic economy still managed to grow, aided by stronger-than-expected consumer spending. Central Statistics Office (CSO) figures published on Friday show the economy as a whole shrank by 3.2 per cent in GDP (gross domestic product) terms in 2023. The CSO noted that the more globalised sectors of the economy, including the multinational-dominated “Industry” sector, contracted for the first time since 2013. This was “driven largely by a fall of 4.8 per cent in exports,” the agency said. The figures show the economy was effectively in a technical recession for the entirety of 2023 with GDP contracting in all four quarters. The domestic economy as measured by modified domestic demand (MDD), a more reliable barometer of domestic activity, grew by 0.5 per cent on the back of a 3.1 per cent increase in consumer spending. Consumer spending was underpinned by strong employment growth with figures published last week showing a record 2.71 million people are now employed in the economy. Incomes also rose in real terms by 3.3 per cent, the CSO said. Worryingly, however, MDD contracted by 0.4 per cent in the final quarter of last year on the back of a fall-off in private-sector investment. Another quarterly contraction would turn Ireland’s technical recession into a real one."

[1] - https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2024/03/01/recession-con...

[KoolKat23]

GDP when it comes to Ireland is not the best measure, yes it was down in 2023 due to lower returns from pharmaceutical and contract manufacturing multinationals.

Modified Domestic Demand, a better measure of the internal economy was up 0.5%, much better but will still be felt relative to the crazy highs Ireland reached the past few years.

The new OECD tax agreement means GDP and tax will remain under pressure (tax surplus forecasts are being revised downwards).

[circlefavshape]

+1

The Irish Central Bank doesn't use GDP anymore because our tax haven status distorts it so much.

[angrais]

Was this comment generated by AI?

[nequo]

Looks human to me and to https://gptzero.me/. What made you think it was AI?

[angrais]

The repetition in the last sentence and use of "Overall". The structure of the first paragraph too.

I appreciate this may not have been the case (sorry OP), which is why I asked the above question.