One hypothesis, if Iran doesn't escalate more, is that Israel take advantage of not retaliating (which will be devastating for Iran and probably be close to a global war) and ask in return to have a harder stance on Iran. The world has been blind about Iran converting into a nuclear power and USA stance very soft for being USA, the top military and business power in the world.
The other hypothesis is retaliation... which obviously turns to a global war. I don't know if precisely a WWIII because the domestic situation of well developed countries is lazy regarding military action.
Basically someone has to blink. My estimation is that the Israeli government has a lot more latitude since the Iranian governemnt is sort of fueled by this hatred of Israel and the US so they really cant be seen to back down. Luckily this attack wasnt really that bad and to me signifies that Iran doesnt want to escalate so I think likely Israel blinks now with the excuse of focusing on Gaza.
Iran knew that though, which was the point, and does make the attack not that bad. Maybe Im just being hopeful though but it really does seem like Iran did what they could to escalate as little as they realistically could and Israelis will respect that.
it's like if you wearing a bullet proof vest, i shot you. fail to kill. and my defense for attempted murder "he knew it was going to happen and had vest on. it's not that bad after all"
More like "if I didnt try to kill you I would be killed myself, so I shot you in a place I knew it wouldnt kill you". Iran's government has positioned itself so that it needs to respond to avoid unrest. They could not have done nothing, and this wasnt much in the scheme of things.
This would have justified a symbolic attack whilest exporting less weapons and terror which Israel may have correctly interpreted as a victory.
Now we have a very substantial provocation by a party working on nuclear weapons. After they can threaten Armageddon they can export nearly unlimited harm short of existential.
We'll be hearing a justification for a preemptive strike on their ability to make war shortly and in 90 days half their leadership will be dead.
The other hypothesis is retaliation... which obviously turns to a global war. I don't know if precisely a WWIII because the domestic situation of well developed countries is lazy regarding military action.