[amou234]

No state owned enterprises in the history of the world has the quality you've just described - fiercely competitive, nationalistic pride, desperation.

China is now Soviet Union, but with horrendous demographics, mind-numbing debt, and wealth flooding out of the country. China is old and broke. China is fucked.

[nebula8804]

You say that but then we see things like BYD introducing products like this.

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izvdO-zdlKg

Unless you want to keep your head in the sand and pretend this is the soviet union all over again, you better start paying attention to how fast they are iterating.

>China is now Soviet Union, but with horrendous demographics, mind-numbing debt, and wealth flooding out of the country. China is old and broke. China is fucked.

Yeah this is the Peter Zeihan thesis but you know what, it might take a while for this to play out and in the meantime, China may not leave the arena until after they have taken out a large chunk of the western incumbents.

[amou234]

BYD is not a Chinese state enterprise...yet. And yeah, I'm not worried.

Nio Loses $35,000 A Car. https://www.carscoops.com/2023/10/nio-loses-35000-a-car-that...

BYD lost its EV crown to Tesla after just one quarter as China’s EV market slumps https://fortune.com/asia/2024/04/03/byd-loses-ev-crown-to-te...

The EU just got a step closer to hitting Chinese EVs with additional tariffs—and may even apply them retroactively https://fortune.com/2024/03/07/eu-nears-hitting-chinese-evs-...

[nebula8804]

Ok feel free to not be worried.

I'd rather listen to Elon in this regard, this is one thing he does have experience in.

[1]:https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-...

>The EU just got a step closer to hitting Chinese EVs with additional tariffs—and may even apply them retroactively

The EU having no major tech giants to call their own has pivoted to regulation and tariffs against both China and the US.

[vikramkr]

You're really gonna take a statement from a CEO that it's important for the government to intervene in order to protect his profits at face value? Elon's made some stupid decisions in the past but I don't think he's stupid enough to be honest. Not lobbying for protectionist measures even if they aren't needed would probably be some sort of corporate malpractice.

[nebula8804]

When it comes to getting advice on where the EV market is going, I am definetly going to listen to the guy who is the leader of EVs in the US. Would I take relationship advice from him? Probably not, but we are talking about the EV market here.

[vikramkr]

I - that's a truly stunning mindset I don't have words. Why would you consider the market leader of a market a reliable source for information on the market? Maybe this is obvious to me coming from a world where all banks have their own analysts and all but the idea of trusting a market leader is just insane. Information asymmetry is so important to capitalism he's obviously not going to provide the full picture. There are entire university departments dedicated to coming up with clever estimates for how much drugs cost to develop to justify high prices. This sounds like, would you trust a pharma CEO if they were providing advice on where the pharma market is going? Or a tech CEO on where the tech market is going? Elon is, as you clearly stated, the leader of EVs in the US. Why would you take his advice on the EV market!? The base assumption is that he's going to be quite strongly motivated to stay leader of the EV market, why would you think he cares about giving you accurate advice?

[Turskarama]

Chinas situation is so incredibly far away from what the Soviet Union was. For one thing they aren't spending the majority of their GDP on a cold war.

[shiroiushi]

They've been massively increasing their defense spending, though you're right, it's not a majority of GDP.

In addition, they've been trying to massively increase their military capacity, but throwing money at it only does so much: you also need young men, and there's not that many that think being in the military is a great idea, and people aren't having kids any more. At least in the old Soviet Union, there was no lack of young men being raised.