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by ookdatnog
807 days ago
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> von Neumann's fear was that nuclear war was inevitable Ethics is messy, but in this case he made an actual, verifiable prediction: that the USSR would use their nuclear arsenal and unleash nuclear war. He said "With the Russians it is not a question of whether but of when." Not that we would come close to nuclear war, or that it would have a high probability that it would happen. He stated that it definitely would happen. And he stated this very confidently. This prediction turned out to be false: the USSR collapsed before it used its nuclear arsenal aggressively, and modern Russia still has not used its nuclear arsenal in any other capacity than as a vague threat. We can state unequivocally that he was wrong about this. Reality disproved his game-theoretic argument. |
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Or maybe he was playing game with his statements. There is a sociological principle (I don't know what/if it has a name) of having an extreme take to rein in a lesser extreme. It can be very informative to see your own ideas taken to an extreme. There is also the impact of an enemy knowing how calculating/cynical you are towards them. I'd say Von Neumann was a hippies hippy by all accounts.