[iwontberude]

Hypothetically, which ticker symbols would you buy put contracts on, at what strike prices, and at what expiration dates? As far as I can tell, a lot of people are betting a lot of money that you are wrong, but actually I think you are right.

[jeremyjh]

The most relevant companies focused on this aren't publicly traded. The ones that are publicly traded like MSFT have way too many other factors affecting their value - not to mention the fact that they'll make money on generative AI that has nothing to do with coding regardless of if an SWE-agent ever works.

[iwontberude]

Oh well you should hear the hype from CNBC and other places, they are strongly intimating that gen AI will replace SWEs on product development teams. I totally agree it’s not likely, but it’s starting to get baked into asset prices and I want to profit from that misunderstanding.

[noncoml]

Ugh, I am not claiming that LLMs are not great innovation. Just that they are not going to replace SWE jobs in our(maybe my) lifetime.

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Conservatively, I think LLMs will replace SWE roles within the next 5-10 years. In that period SWE roles will change drastically, to be more hearding of AI agents.

We can't hope to compete with something that can edit all the files in less than 5 minutes.

If you're not at least trying to plan what your life will look like under these circumstances then you're doing yourself a disservice.