[mschuster91]

> Additionally, the notion of a middle class relies on a wage differential. If AI levels the playing field so dramatically, the notion of middle class will entirely evaporate since everyone's purchasing power equalizes.

Yup, and that is going to be the defining problem of the next decade - IMHO even more than climate change and most other environmental issues.

The lower classes aren't going to be threatened by AI, not for a looong time until we get "I, Robot"/Star Trek TNG Data-like robots with precision dexterity comparable to a human. The jobs they do aren't automatable at all, have been automated long ago so it's not an issue any more (most of manufacturing, mining) or human labor will be cheaper than a robot replacing it (which is sad enough - shouldn't automation actually free the masses from toiling in hard and rewardless jobs?).

The higher classes (depending on definition, usually the 1-10 top % of wealth) aren't going to be threatened by AI either. Those who have the money have the power after all, and almost everyone with a fully paid off home and a second one to rent out should be set even for the worst cases.

But the wide masses? Realistically, as you said most of them will fall to lower classes in income and lifestyle, and a very few luckshotters (="AI prompt engineers") manage to raise up. We've seen in the last decade or so just how powerful and reactionary the search of these masses for a scapegoat for their externally-caused misfortune can be, and it can take on a lot of different forms: nationalism to far-right xenophobia, antisemitism, anti-muslim, anti-intellectual ("antivaxxers", a ton of "homeschoolers")... that's a lot to take on even for a stable society, and external influence (enemy nation propaganda, financially motivated propaganda such as the Macedonian troll farms hunting for ad placements, domestic media moguls) makes it even worse.

Honestly I have zero idea how the fuck humanity is supposed to continue to exist as a civilization longer than 10-20 years. Even the best of our democracies are falling apart not just at the fringes (you always had and will have loons) but in the center.

[bumby]

Alarmism aside, there are ways to mitigate this outcome. Take your comment:

>or human labor will be cheaper than a robot replacing it

One option is to create an automation tax, which makes human labor more competitive while also supplanting the income taxes that are lost due to automation. That's just one example, but like so many problems that are of man-made origin, there are also potential solutions of man-made origin. They are not natural laws.

[Nevermark]

> One option is to create an automation tax

Since everything is going to get automated, this is one of the more complex ways of getting to the same place: industry taxes that pay for a universal income.

My take is just as radical, but makes more philosophical and moral sense (to me).

All newly discovered non-human made resources are considered a common inheritance. Industry (whoever) gets bounties for discovery, and bids to extract, with that money getting distributed to everyone evenly.

What I like about it: inheritance is considered a moral transaction, joint inheritance of the planet is an ideal we often give lip service to, flat distribution does not favor or disfavor anyone, and this distribution method doesn't take anything from anyone (after a gradual transition to the new regime).

The value of total natural resources extracted is going to increase over time, even as unit pricing goes down. Access to resources beyond Earth will give the value of new resources a big boost.

Something will have to radically change, regardless.

[mschuster91]

> One option is to create an automation tax, which makes human labor more competitive while also supplanting the income taxes that are lost due to automation.

As if those in power would ever agree to such a thing. "Trickle down" is a myth, US Congress has been gridlocked for decades, and most other parliaments in the world are so infested with lobbyists that you will not ever see an automation tax without widespread violent unrest. People living outside of democracies have it even worse.

There are zero signs that democracy is capable of fixing the issues at hand, it's all just too damn corrupt, and fighting for utter and bare survival against the rise of authoritarianism. Yes, you sometimes have "social democrats" gain power (or authoritarians getting booted off their posts like PiS in Poland or what will sooner or later happen to Erdogan and Netanyahu), but they spend almost all of their political energy on undoing the worst "accomplishments" of their predecessors, and all too often get booted themselves by a population unwilling or financially unable to go through change (as we're seeing in Germany).