Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by fluoridation 816 days ago
It sounds to me like you're trying to seek a correlation too eagerly. It's not obvious whether it's more implausible that he's a lazy Chinese programmer with very good English, or a lazy native English-speaking programmer who wants to pretend to be Chinese.
1 comments
IshKebab 816 days ago
The former is more implausible because Chinese people with that level of English are quite rare, whereas English people able to create a fake Chinese username are not.
link
kqr 816 days ago
I feel like you're making three statistical mistakes at once.

- First, we're not discussing the English level of the general Chinese population, but specifically of the group that's also good at programming. That conditional probability is much higher.

- Even if we did speak of the general Chinese population, that is a lot of people so something rare in that group is true for many people still!

- It's not like everyone in the US has great English either. (Though open source maintainers are again probably more likely to.)

link
IshKebab 815 days ago
> but specifically of the group that's also good at programming. That conditional probability is much higher.

That's the group I was discussing. Higher for sure, but still not high. (Remember we're talking about Chinese nationals, not Chinese ethnicity.)

> so something rare in that group is true for many people still

Yes but we're talking probabilities so the total population size is irrelevant. You're the one making the statistical mistake here.

> It's not like everyone in the US has great English either. (Though open source maintainers are again probably more likely to.)

Answered your own question there.

link
int_19h 815 days ago
There's a lot of Chinese people, though.

And China has been enticing ethnic Chinese who grew up in the West to "come back to the Motherland" with promises of riches for a long time now. Quite a few made the switch, too. I very much doubt that finding a native English speaker is a problem if it's the PRC govt.

It does make it less likely to be Russia, though. Although of course this could always just be subcontracted.

link