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by thelastbender12 811 days ago
I'm curious where universal forecasting models are most useful. It is technically fascinating but forecasting specifically seems like a domain where you'd want interpretable modeling - you use it for big-value problems and it significantly affects your action/policy. So, the tradeoff between performance and model simplicity should lean towards the latter?
1 comments

So I am not alone! There seem so few people who hold this view these days.
Same for my shop - we manage a large pool of cost driven by partially forcastable factors; we've repeatedly rejected methods purely on explainability grounds. Our accountability requirements do not allow us to point the finger at an LLM if we get it wrong.
I know. Here I am modeling my data generating process like a chump.