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by juitpykyk 813 days ago
Imagine how much electricity will be needed to replace 1 billion jobs with AI in the next 5 years.
4 comments

HN comment, in 1945: “Imagine how much real estate will be needed to put an ENIAC in every person’s office”
They would have been right, just as the person you're replying to will be. There was not the compute equivalent of ENIAC in every person's office by 1950. The real estate requirements would have been enormous.

Did every office wind up with more compute than an ENIAC? Yes. Did it take as much real estate as ENIACs would have? Of course not.

Did it happen in five years? Absolutely not.

Our AI models will get better and more efficient. Our compute will get more efficient. But how much has FLOPs per watt improved in the last five years? Not much. How much more power efficient have models gotten? Not much, we haven't been optimizing for that, since quality isn't even there yet for many tasks; we've instead been making models larger and require even more compute. It's not hard to extrapolate these trends and see that if you were to replace a billion jobs in five years, enormous amounts of power will be required.

How much energy do 1 billion people consume? I don’t think this is the criteria we should use.
Those people are still gonna exist though, right…. Right…?
You mean in token form?
The people still consume (basically) the same amount of electricity though, regardless of their employment status.

Edit: though perhaps you're making the point that the AI energy usage is a drop in the bucket compared to its overall usefulness. I agree on that.

It’s more that energy usage isn’t a useful metric - because trying to minimize it leads in entirely different direction (and pretty dark).

Ideally those 1b people would contribute value elsewhere in the world, leading to a big net gain rather than just displacement - and we’re hopefully getting bigger gains for the energy invested. Of course that’s ignoring likely concentration of value, etc.

If the AI is truly smart, very little
I also hope there are anti-capitalism effects with AI. We won't need 10,000 different ad agencies when we have well-running space communism.
Imagine the compensation for a job where the ceiling is "what would the electricity for AI cost to have AI do it?"