[Arnt]

War is a loss for everyone, when it happens. That doesn't mean that future potential war is a loss for everyone.

One of the common stories of wars up through the ages is this: Country A has merchant shipping and a navy. Country B raids the merchant ships. Country A declares war on B. The war is a loss for everyone, including A.

After the war, merchant shipping resumes. Is it going to be raided again? Those who might raid it know that A will declare war even if it's clear that war leads to pain and suffering for A itself.

Avoiding war is great if you can either protect your interests with a credible threat or in other ways. Remaining credible is a challenge if you've backed down a few times.