[fauigerzigerk]

>See also: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y/ The grey areas are recessions

This chart shows (part of) the yield curve, not the Fed funds rate.

Did you mean to show this?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

[spqrr]

I guess that would have been more correct, yes. It shows the same pattern in any case.

[fauigerzigerk]

What it shows is that the Fed starts cutting rates shortly before or shortly after a recession begins, exactly as you would expect. In some cases they started raising again too early and had to backtrack.