[Turing_Machine]

> Look at some of the costs and timeframes involved in one of the big 3's newer engines:

Look at the cost and timeframes involved in spacecraft made by Boeing, Lockmart, Northrop Grumman and all their pals compared to SpaceX.

I'm about 99.99999% sure that there are considerable cost savings to be had in supersonic aircraft as well.

[null_shift]

Based on what?

[Turing_Machine]

Knowledge of history?

Startups eating the lunch of entrenched, bureaucracy-laden organizations is a very old story indeed -- long before Silicon Valley.

[class3shock]

Not in commercial jet engines. The four big players have been in the engine game since the 1920s-1940s. Others came and went, some were bought or merged into them, but no one has eaten their lunch.

If they were still using the same designs they made 50+ years ago (like the rocket industry in the 2000s) I would agree with you... but they aren't. They have been constantly pushing performance to get better thrust-to-weight, efficiency, noise, etc. Whenever they get lazy (which they have) one of the other players is the one that gets to dine well. Look up "The Airforce and the Great Engine War" for an example.