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by mebazaa 814 days ago
Paul Krugman covers that question here (gift link): https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/09/opinion/inflation-target-... and argues that the theoretical assumptions that led to the 2 percent rate didn’t turn out to be true:

> On one side were economists who believed that the essential role of monetary policy — maybe even its moral duty — was to deliver stable prices. Money, after all, is a yardstick we use to measure economic activity, and they argued that this yardstick shouldn’t be constantly changing its length.

> On the other side were economists who worried that too low an inflation rate could inhibit our ability to fight recessions. The Federal Reserve and its counterparts in other countries try to manage the economy mainly through their control of short-term interest rates; but these rates can’t go much below zero, because negative rates would just lead people to accumulate stacks of $100 bills. A higher rate of inflation tends, other things being equal, to raise interest rates and makes it less likely that the Fed, faced with a recession, will hit the “zero lower bound” and be unable to cut rates further.

The zero lower bound turned out to be a real problem, given the amount of years we spent at a zero percent interest rate.

1 comments

The real problem is using monetary policy as a tool at all. We should have ZIRP forever and use fiscal policy to target price stability and full employment.
> We should have ZIRP forever and use fiscal policy to target price stability and full employment.

If only (US?) politicians would get their act together and act.

Instead we have folks that believe cutting spending/demand will increase economic output ("expansionary austerity"):

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expansionary_fiscal_contractio...

Or that tax cuts pay for themselves:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_experiment

ZIRP is zero interest rate policy - were you perhaps thinking of zero inflation rate instead?

Zero interest rate tends to create lots of inflation because borrowing money (i.e. banks other than the Fed creating money) is nearly free.

I’m pretty sure they mean zero interest ZIRP with regard to MMT. But people forget the second part of MMT which is confiscatory in effect even if not by name, it’s still your money but you are no longer allowed to spend it until inflation comes down, by which point your money is obviously worth less than it was and that value is in effect confiscated.
God knows where you got that from
I remember reading it in a Harvard white paper, I deleted my MMT archives once it became obvious that it was not only economically unworkable (which I had already assumed) but also politically unworkable.

Economists used to think that inflation was hard to start which made MMT more tenable and now they think inflation is hard to stop. It was only hard to start because speculative asset bubbles soak up liquidity and reduce money velocity.

What makes you think appealing to authority at Harvard is impressive? Or using the term “economist” when you have Powell talking about being guided by the stars?

MMT is a description of how reserve accounting works in an economy with a floating exchange rate and how that is linked to the physical economy.

If you have something that shows how that isn’t the case in practice then I’m all ears.

MMT describes how money already works
ZIRP removes the artificial intervention in the market for money by unelected individuals with no accountability to the population for their actions.

The market for money then goes where it will according to free market principles and the autostabilisers operate in the market for labour instead.

No point giving free money to people who already have money.

ZIRP is an artificial intervention in the market: Whenever it costs money to borrow money, the government will print some and give it for free to whoever is looking to borrow it.
Government always spends by printing money. Just as banks always spend by printing money.

Taxation and loan repayments then shred money.

There is no fixed quantity of little silver coins we pass around and never has been.

There is no need to pay a third party for an accounting credit when you run the system

ZIRP isn't just zero interest rate for the government; it's near-zero interest rate for everyone.
It didn't create lots of inflation though. It took the disruptions caused by covid shut-downs to kick off inflation.
Using fiscal policy would require a functional legislative branch.
Not in the slightest. We have these things called “autostabilisers” that are temporally and spatially more precise than jiggling a single interest rate and indirectly hoping something moves in the right direction two years later
I’ve got a dumb question, how would an autostabilizer policy become law?

Can the executive branch unilaterally enact an autostabilizer policy?

If not, that would “require a functional legislative branch” as I posted in the post that you replied to.