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by pinkmuffinere 821 days ago
Fwiw, I work in home robotics, but have no experience in self driving. My halfway-naive belief is that self-driving is easier than getting useful home robots —in fact I feel it’s not even a close comparison. Some reasons:

- The home is a very unstructured environment, whereas roads have at least _some structure_, and perhaps ~70% of the most useful roads even have clear lane markings and other signs.

- People already know that roads are dangerous, and there’s an expectation that babies won’t suddenly crawl in front of cars. This doesn’t exist in the home

- People are more comfortable being recorded on roads and highways than in their own homes, so you can get training data more easily for self driving.

- to do something useful in the home, imo you need to solve navigation _and_ complicated manipulation problems. For self driving, you only need to solve the navigation problem.

- (this is speculation on my part) Customers will happily pay 10k-20k extra for a self-driving car, and there are industries in which even more cost makes sense. Customers are less likely to pay that for a robot that does your chores

Would be very interested to hear the perspective of someone that works on self-driving

4 comments

>to do something useful in the home, imo you need to solve navigation _and_ complicated manipulation problems. For self driving, you only need to solve the navigation problem.

Right. It can be challenging to figure out how fast, what lane, should I brake, etc. in many cities. But there are really only a few things the car can control. And its objectives are pretty simple: Obey the law, don't hit anything (and avoid being hit), and get to point B.

By contrast, think of all the different types of manipulation you need to clean up around the house and the 100 judgements you make you decide what needs to be cleaned--which will vary by person.

>Customers will happily pay 10k-20k extra for a self-driving car, and there are industries in which even more cost makes sense. Customers are less likely to pay that for a robot that does your chores

It would be at least an upper middle class purchase at that level but it depends how generally useful it was. People pay thousands of dollars a year for a housekeeper to come by.

Yes this is my point - the home is a hard place to operate in but less potential for lethal outcomes. If we can solve home robotics I think cars would be easier.

Also, a robot that replaces a housekeeper would have a huge market. I’d pay a handsome sum to have perfectly cleaned kitchen and bathrooms every day when I wake up.

For clarity, I’ll call out the areas where I think we disagree:

> “the home … [has] less potential for lethal outcomes.”

I don’t think this is true. Roads already have systems in place to make them safer, and people are aware of the dangers. This isn’t the case at home, and useful home robots certainly have the ability to cause serious injuries/deaths

> “If we can solve home robotics I think cars would be easier”

I also think cars are easier. However, I think this is _why_ we’ve made more progress towards solving self driving.

> “I’d pay a handsome sum to have perfectly cleaned kitchen and bathrooms every day when I wake up.”

When you say “perfectly cleaned rooms”, I think “better than you can get with a 90th percentile hired cleaner”. I suspect useful home robots might be 10 years out, but I’m doubtful we’ll get “perfectly cleaned rooms” from a commercial home robot and using the above criteria within even the next 50 years. Maybe controversial, but I think AGI might be easier, lol

My main thing with road safety is the presence of giant dangerous SUV which one has no control over. At least I can control what is or isn’t in my home, on the roads some asshole driving their Cybertruck at 40 mph over the limit will annihilate my hatchback. Point taken regardless, but I still worry more about cars than anything in my home.

Otherwise I have a small child in the house, so I’d be grateful for 1 percentile capability at the moment. ;-)

Thanks for your thoughts tho, I think we can agree future seems interesting at the least.

> Customers are less likely to pay that for a robot that does your chores

They will if you can get them 2% financing like I can get on a new Honda HR-V.