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by solumunus
824 days ago
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No, that’s objectively wrong. You simply haven’t seen retail involvement in the market on this level before, not even close. It’s a new precedent, the market has changed. To clarify, I’m not saying NVDA won’t crash from here or bear markets no longer exist. I’m simply saying that historic PE valuations are a poor metric for assessing the potential of a stock in todays market conditions. |
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Yes, it's probably the first time that retail is allowed to trade options. But it's not the first time that retail is all in in stocks. I've tried to find a funny number to back it up - just check the Wiki on 1929 crash - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929 - there was more money lent to 'small investors' so they can buy on margin ... than the entire amount of currency circulating at the time.
On average, all those retail guys will loose money - that's the sad truth. In the long term, the stocks simply follow the earnings - all other movements around this trends are pretty much a zero sum game - and most skilled operators are not loosing money in that game.
Price to earning ratio is just the number of years the company 'pays for itself' if you buy it. PER at 40s for big chunks of main indexes mean that either there will be tremendous progress in the economy that will boost the earnings or people are hoping to resell to a bigger fool.
Note: I work in finance, and I very much see the retail involvement in stocks. Hedge Funds and banks, are making a ton of money out of them, that's for sure.