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by dandy23 818 days ago
The problem with economic models is that they remove almost all parameters except a few. But the removed parameters account for like 90% of the outcome.

That's the only way you can create models of something as complex as society. It's way more complex and chaotic than weather and still economists think they can predict months and years into the future.
1 comments
RandomLensman 818 days ago
For smaller economies modelling some months into the future is actually pretty decently possible. Of course, there could always be big events throwing everything in a new state.

There are also very very granular models.

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flakeoil 818 days ago
How do you know?

Do you seriously mean that smaller economies can be modelled several months into the future with accuracy and be correct more than 50% of the time?

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RandomLensman 818 days ago
Yes, because people do these kinds of analyses (e.g., https://www.snb.ch/public/publication/en/www-snb-ch/publicat...)

("50%" might not always be the right way to look at things, but I assume you mean something better than random or previous.)

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flakeoil 818 days ago
That study kind of proves that economics is not a science. Not even the "true" value they want to compare their forecast with is correct. It's also just an estimate. Complete nonsense.

"To assess the quality of the forecasts, they are compared with the actual GDP figures. Since GDP is normally revised several times, it is necessary to decide which figure to take as the outcome. Following the literature, we use the first available estimate for real GDP growth. In our case, this is the annual average calculated by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (seco) in March of each year on the basis of its quarterly estimates.2"

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RandomLensman 818 days ago
GDP is always an "estimate", not sure what your issue is. What specifically do you dislike about this estimate?

Physics isn't "complete nonsense" just because we don't know the exact mass of a proton but rather have some small uncertainty there.

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flakeoil 818 days ago
The main problem is that GDP can and is defined in so many different ways and massaged and changed to anyones liking.

Same with inflation. It's hard to measure correctly in the first place and becomes even more useless as it is defined differently at every occasion or when it does not match whatever one tries to achieve.

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