[mdale]

This article seems to have a big miss the basic point on exponential technical progress shifting the "comparative constraint" every 18 months.

A $35 raspberry pi AI chess blows away deep blue from algorithmic and compute progress. So the comparative constraint is on a exponential fall off curve not a constant per "more valuable" areas to be automated. Not only that a bright highschool student can research a bit online and build a competitive solution given algorithmic and compute advantages of today vs late 90s

Right now it may cost $10 Dollars in compute and a day guiding GPT4 to productive economic activity; but GPT7-turbo will cost 2c and take 2 min of guidance for equivalent comparative value.

It would make no sense to look at early computers and say phone operators will always have a job because of the comparative cost constraints of automating phone switch boards with computers will use "too much energy" and there are "more valuable things" for computers to do vs low cost of human operators.

Fair to say that jobs will change :)