[pjerem]

For now, my feelings are that AI can be really helpful if you know the field. You need to be senior to know how to ask things and to understand the answers.

For anyone not understanding the domain, AI is just a glorified stack overflow but with hallucinations.

Hallucinations can be fought but you need to suggest that you got the wrong answer and why. And that requires a deep understanding of the domain.

Honestly I’m really frightened that we collectively accept that AI is an acceptable source of truth and that it’s ok to make decisions from its output or worse, use it as a learning material.

[axus]

Claude, compose an email response to shift the blame from my latest AI-induced screwup.

[pojzon]

Point was - it will speed up junior to senior transition. Not that it will replace seniors with juniors.

We will also need less senior ppl, coz AI will be "good enough", most stuff we are faced with isn't really that complex.

[timr]

You don't get anywhere faster "learning" from something that lies to you 20% of the time.

It's a bit like working with a bad colleague who is very fast, but very arrogant. You can't trust what they say because they're wrong often enough to make costly mistakes common. But you can't fight them on every little thing, either. The only solution is to already be an expert, and ignore them when they're wrong.

I honestly believe AI -- if it has a dramatic impact at all -- will only reduce the value of junior employees.

[mulmen]

My entire formal education and subsequent career stands in opposition to this statement. Unless you mean that learning requires being lied to more than 20% of the time.

[timr]

That sounds like exaggeration to me, in service of a bias against "formal education". But OK. YMMV.

My statement applies only to the experience of working with the things, and relates not at all to "formal education". If I have to learn the subject to debug what they're putting out, then the rate-limiting step of using them is...learning the subject. Same as it ever was.

Having a stochastic parrot spit a stream of 20% nonsense at me doesn't make learning go faster -- it definitely does make work go faster if I'm already an expert, however.

[mulmen]

I actually think the time I spent in school was valuable and that formal education gets a bad rap around here. I believe that my teachers all had good intentions. But they weren't always right. In my experience nobody is right 80% of the time.

I'm skeptical of the AI hype but I do believe there is value. Similar to self driving cars an AI assistant or teacher doesn't have to be right all the time, it only has to be right more often. Proper use of this tool will require skillbuilding like anything else.

[timr]

Oh, I'm not saying there's no value, just that I don't think the value is nearly the magnitude being hyped, and certainly not for the "speeding up the junior to senior transition" posited by the comment at the top of the thread. And sure, every teacher is wrong at some rate -- but the way we deal with that is by thinking for ourselves, asking lots of teachers, working out the differences, etc. This inherently takes time.

Pick some domain that you know nothing about, and ask a transformer model to solve a known problem in the space. It will give you a reply. Is the reply correct? Assuming that you even know how to ask the right question to get a sensible answer (which itself requires expertise), assessing the quality of the answer certainly requires expertise that you don't have. So either you figure it out for yourself (as slow as learning from any other source), or you take it on blind faith.

If I had to wager on the area where I think these models are going to lead to big changes, it's reading and summarization, not generation. "Describe how node deletion in b-trees works in 500 words" is a heck of a lot more useful than asking a transformer to write code to implement node deletion in a b-tree.

[mulmen]

If AI is “good enough” but you need to be senior to use it don’t we need less juniors? Like, just enough to replenish the retiring seniors.

[pjerem]

That’s my point, yes.

At least in the current state of affairs.

Also it’s a technical view from someone who played/worked with AI for more than a year.

It may not be the opinion of upper management :) And upper management can survive a pretty long time after their own mess.