[omeze]

I think youre kind of right, its not really meaningful to know “im right about things that happen 5% of the time!”. But if a lot of things you bet on structurally happen to be low probability and of the same type (eg you bet on one type of catastrophic event like pandemic, crop disease, or war etc) then its useful

[anonymous-panda]

Or you’ve just learned how to optimize your score on the game you’re playing but the game isn’t actually about predicting the future.

[tunesmith]

Proper scoring rules like Brier mean that any attempt to optimize your score by definition mean that you are improving your calibration.