[whatshisface]

Suppose there's a dragon that comes out of its cave and eats a villager every seven years. A knight passes through the village, sees the dragon carry off someone's wife, and calls the villagers to arms: only for calm reason to prevail, as the village elder points out that the incidence of dragon attacks in that locale has not, when adjusted for the expanding population, and increasingly frequent human-dragon contacts, and the inherent unreliability of wooden house door-plugs, risen above historically expected levels.