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by counters
825 days ago
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Climate change has no impact on weather modeling. The vast majority of weather forecasts derive from physically-based simulations of the atmosphere; the physics of the atmosphere don't suddenly change because the climate is warming. However, we rely equally heavily on statistically post-processing these physically-based simulations to correct systematic biases and better contextualize their outputs. Drift in the distribution of weather conditions - even small - can contaminate some of these types of applications. But not really in a way that you can honestly claim "climate change is making weather forecasts less accurate." > are there any companies relying on AI to develop a more accurate weather forecasting service? Sure there are. But AI isn't a silver bullet, and existing weather forecasting technologies are _really freaking good_. For all of the hullabaloo over AI-NWP systems like Google's GraphCast and Huawei's PanguWeather, these state-of-the-art systems are about _on par_ with the best-in-class existing numerical weather models; they offer incremental improvements in tuned forecast accuracy, but these improvements are statistical descriptions of a very, very large number of forecasts - end users really wouldn't see any practical difference in forecast quality if they relied on these forecasts. But to my point above - even AI-NWP outputs would be filtered through statistical post-processing to boost their accuracy/utility. There are a lot of companies that _claim_ they use AI at different parts of the weather value chain to improve forecasts. A lot of them stretch the truth as to what extent they really use AI or ML. The simple reality is that the weather community has used ML since the 1970's to improve weather forecasts. |
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