[mjburgess]

You can turn most issues into powerlaws by recursing a reasonable risk distribution over it.

So suppose we ask, what is our confidence in X? (rather than X); and then, what is our confidence in the model by which we give confidences in X (ie., the model risk); and so on...

In practice, what we want to model is the appropriate confidence, not an actual prediction (bunk). So we are very often screwed.

Statistics is an illusion.