[defrost]

Violent crime "creeping up" is entirely dependant on whose reports and which methodology relative when it changed .. see (for example):

https://www.themarshallproject.org/2023/11/03/violent-crime-...

Whichever way that data is cut, though, pre-2000 and in particular mid 70s "peak lead" crime levels are far and away worse than those of the past two decades.

[giantg2]

That's fine, but I don't think there any causation in that correlation. I've never heard a compelling argument to explain it when there are tons of other compelling factors (organized crime, economics, opportunity, surveillance technology, testosterone levels, even birth control and abortion).

Edit: why disagree? I can claim that the size of the standard Hersey bar had a positive correlation over that time too. That doesn't mean there's a convincing causative mechanism. Most of the studies linking lead to crime rely on poor data practices, such as testing blood levels of convicted criminals. There are very easy explainations to show bias here, such as smarter criminals being less likely to be convinced and criminals with higher blood levels tending to have lower IQs. Many exclude certain areas like DC or NYC in their analysis or the trend disappeared. Many used state level data points which are not granular enough to investigate causative effect (eg median income at the state level is not useful. You need to investigate it at the individual level. Things like localized cost of living and standard of living would also be more useful numbers). The designs and data are sloppy as hell in my opinion.