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by rsclient 838 days ago
If you have 1024 people each of whom make 8 trades (and win/loss is 50/50), 4 of those thousand will succeed with every trade.

Given that, survivorship bias is 100% the right answer. If you have a "gut feel" that something else is going on, chances are your gut feel is wrong.

1 comments

Especially in this case where it seemed like he didn't even expect this result.