Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by hnarn 835 days ago
> So maybe, in 50 years from now, Russia will join NATO, too?

While not technically impossible, practically this is very hard to see. Unless Russia becomes a market liberal, well functioning democracy, it will not happen -- and what are the odds of that?

Russia had the chance after the collapse of the Soviet Union, instead it devolved into a plutocracy and what is essentially a one-party state in anything but name.

Regardless of what some people might think, in no small part due to many people seeing Russia as the spiritual successor to the SU combined with its vast geographical size, Russia is not a superpower, and will not become one in our lifetime.

Yes, they have nukes. So does the UK, and the UK economy is 20% larger than Russia despite is essentially being an island off Europe. How about France? They have nukes too, and their economy is 30% larger.

Russia is a failed state at the tail end of a century long brain drain, crippled by corruption and authoritarian rule, but none of these things are the most deciding factor in why they will never be part of NATO; the primary reason is that Russia quite simply has an empire complex.

What do you get if you combine economical stagnation and a dead empire inferiority complex? You get Hitler, or in this case Putin, and I very much doubt any of us will see a "rehabilitation" of the Russian people like we saw in Germany in our lifetime.

3 comments

Russia will need to break up into smaller pieces before it is palatable for nato to absorb. Too geographically big right now. USA cannot tolerate anyone else in nato being big in any way that rivals them.
Geographical size means nothing and isn't a challenge to the US, Russia's economy isn't that important to the global economy. The Russian economy is smaller than Canada's and Canada is not only a NATO member but also geographically large.
Smaller than Italy's. PPP works in their favor, to some degree, but outside of natural resources and low-end manufacturing they're mostly holding on to the shadow of the USSR. It's not really a place for innovation, and not a great place to do business unless you're willing to hemorrhage cash via bribes and bureaucracy.
> Unless Russia becomes a market liberal, well functioning democracy, it will not happen -- and what are the odds of that?

I think the odds are actually pretty good 50 years out in the future.

At the same time, some democratic or benevolent dictator country (e.g. Phillipines or El Salvador) could be totally fucked up (again) in 50 years.

Interesting take. What do you think we will see in Europe the next 5-15 years?
my bet is also explained here https://youtu.be/YJVUGecCXv0
Very interesting, but also not very reassuring…