[MaxPengwing]

Sweden joining means they have lost the Baltic Sea as the only entrance is now controlled by two NATO countries. Finland Joining has helped lock down the Baltic sea but most importantly is a staging ground for cutting logistics to the largest military complex on the Kola peninsula.

This war is not just about Russias energy politics, it's also very much about their need for more maritime access. THis map shows where Russia has their ports, and now 4 important ports are pretty much neutralised. Kaliningrad, St Peterburg, and the Krimean Naval Complex are all locked in by NATO countries which means a naval blocade of Russia is very very easy and would completely render their navy's impotent. THe fourth one is on the Kola peninsula and this is why Finland is important as a staging ground to attack the railways to make the Murmansk complex isolated and within medium range missile range from Nelim and Kirkenes.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1h5ZK8Z4Ft06VV4ifg6...

THis leaves Petrapavlovsk-Kamchatskiyiv (North of Japan) and Valdivodstock (Next to North Korea) the only Free Water ports that are not affected by NATO.

Real Life lore has a gret video on this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=si9Phc9ArpU

[repelsteeltje]

Interesting. You seem to know your stuff and have thought this through.

So, I was hoping to solicit your opinion on where you think Kaliningrad will be in a couple of years? (Say 5)

It probably won't be called "Koningsberg", but would you say it's probable it will become independent? Part of Lithuania, Poland? Or will it remain firmly Russian and (economically) isolated?

Curious to hear your thoughts.

[yakshaving_jgt]

Many [though not enough] people in K̶a̶l̶i̶n̶i̶n̶g̶r̶a̶d̶ Królewiec consider themselves more European than russian. The optimistic view is that sooner or later they'll get their way. Perhaps with putler's death they might.

[repelsteeltje]

Thank you.

That rhymes with the sentiment I gauged (anecdotally) from (West) Ukrainians, Belarusians and even some folk in St Petersburg.

[roamerz]

>a naval blocade of Russia is very very easy and would completely render their navy's impotent.

I think that may be okay in theory but is a bit of an over simplification for any real life scenario that deals with the wildcard dictator of Russia. Nothing is very very easy.

[chasd00]

NATO is a defensive pact, if there was a NATO naval blockade there would already be war with NATO which almost certainly means escalation to nuclear war. that's my take anyway.

[NicoJuicy]

Nope. Nuclear war is just bluff from Russia.

Just think about it. They won't even have decided which country or city to hit.

While the only one in Russia that matters is Moscow.

Or putin's castles, but that's no city.