We all know the "Year of the Linux Desktop" meme, but this deserves an answer.
I don't think linux will overtake apple on the desktop (which actually includes notebook and laptops) but the current state has been good enough for a few years. And I'm not saying it is good enough only in terms of it being ready or well rounded, I mean in terms of marketshare. Linux has surpassed the 4% mark in globalstats last month and combined with chromeOS (with which it share many drivers) had peaks above 7% last year; it is very likely that the record will be broken this year. Of course, globalstats may be inaccurate, but I guess it is a good picture of the trends.
This has had an interesting consequence: it is no longer a good idea to ignore linux on the desktop; at least not for hardware vendors. It's been a long time since I last saw a consolidated laptop with anything not working out of the box. In the software side, linux is still ignored by some big name vendors, namely adobe, microsoft and game studios. That point is still sad.
Now, considering most developers software are multiplatform and, besides games, most entertainment runs on the browser, the last obstacle is still software. As linux' usage grows (and although very slow, it grows increasingly faster), vendors will eventually have to change their minds about linux on the desktop. Nevertherless I don't think that will happen before the end of this decade, also I don't think will see linux beating windows or even mac on the desktop. But, since I'm not dependent on any non-multiplatform software, I really don't care: the current situation (even in terms of marketshare and the way it has been continually improving) is good enough for me and has been for some years already.
Also... I don't really want Linux on the Desktop to beat macOS/Windows. Because at that point it will be just like macOS/Windows, and I am not on Linux for that.
I often see complaints that Linux on the Desktop is not enough like macOS/Windows, and I never understand: why use Linux then? I want Linux because of what it is now, not because I want a free macOS/Windows.
You don't understand because most would-be converts by far want a free-as-in-beer Windows or Mac.
Annoyed by Microsoft 365 nagging? Sick of the Apple ecosystem? Mah freedom? Nevermind all that, they're just excuses. The real reason is they don't want to pay $200+ for a Windows license or $1000+ for a Mac.
Sure, I understand the "I don't want to pay" intention. What I don't get is why anyone would work for free to convert those people. I don't need them to use Linux, and in fact I don't want them here because they will push Linux towards a direction I don't like.
I don't think linux will overtake apple on the desktop (which actually includes notebook and laptops) but the current state has been good enough for a few years. And I'm not saying it is good enough only in terms of it being ready or well rounded, I mean in terms of marketshare. Linux has surpassed the 4% mark in globalstats last month and combined with chromeOS (with which it share many drivers) had peaks above 7% last year; it is very likely that the record will be broken this year. Of course, globalstats may be inaccurate, but I guess it is a good picture of the trends.
This has had an interesting consequence: it is no longer a good idea to ignore linux on the desktop; at least not for hardware vendors. It's been a long time since I last saw a consolidated laptop with anything not working out of the box. In the software side, linux is still ignored by some big name vendors, namely adobe, microsoft and game studios. That point is still sad.
Now, considering most developers software are multiplatform and, besides games, most entertainment runs on the browser, the last obstacle is still software. As linux' usage grows (and although very slow, it grows increasingly faster), vendors will eventually have to change their minds about linux on the desktop. Nevertherless I don't think that will happen before the end of this decade, also I don't think will see linux beating windows or even mac on the desktop. But, since I'm not dependent on any non-multiplatform software, I really don't care: the current situation (even in terms of marketshare and the way it has been continually improving) is good enough for me and has been for some years already.